It's already starting. Articles like these letting students know that the top UC's are once again poised to receive a record number of applications.
This is not unique to the UC’s nor is it a one-time event. This has been happening since the pandemic. What IS unique to the UC’s are WHY this impacts the process in such a frustrating and unpredictable way.
Rising applications overall have made the overall process more competitive especially for colleges that are already highly selective. One reason is that pre-pandemic, more colleges included test scores as part of a student’s overall evaluation. Even for colleges with highly holistic review practices, the test score acted as a barrier of sorts for students to decide if they were going to apply.
But with the UC’s, while the process is certainly holistic compared to Cal State colleges, it is still less so than most highly selective colleges, which means academics plays a huge role. Students who previously had a 4.2 weighted GPA but a test score lower than the freshman profile may have thought twice about applying to UCLA or UC Berkeley. With test scores removed from the equation, applications soared.
Another factor unique to the UC’s is their admission cycle. Most colleges have multiple deadlines that allow students to apply early or regular decision. This process also helps them manage enrollment by deferring students from the early to the regular round, start building their freshman class and gauge interest of the remaining students The UC’s have only one submit period and one release period so there is no opportunity to defer students to another round and no opportunity to gauge interest. The process doesn’t allow for gradual weeding out of students over the course of a few months. The UC’s announce decisions throughout the month of March with only a month to make a final decision. Cue the waitlists.
It’s important to distinguish the difference between the University of California waitlists from other colleges. For most other colleges, by the time a student is put on the wait list, the chances for admission are very small as the majority of the class has been formed. The waitlists are for the rare cases where a student has to defer or drop out of the running.
For the UC’s, waitlists are predominantly used as an enrollment management tool and thus becomes the place to "park" qualified students until they make their final choice of which college to attend. This means that the waitlist doesn’t even begin to move until after the May 1st SIR's (statement of intent to register) deadline has passed.
While this is mostly due to the way the admission process is set up, students are complicit in contributing to this as well. Far too many apply to all 9 colleges and then wait to see their results. This means the UC’s know that they are receiving an inflated number of applications from students with no intention of attending and why they know they have to over-enroll as a way to make sure they make their admit quotas. Instead, evaluate each UC individually and apply to the ones that you’re really interested in attending. Figure out what you like about those colleges and use that to include options outside of the UC’s.
For seniors, if you are admitted to several UC’s and you know one or two is not where you want to go, go ahead and decline enrollment. Or, if you get on a waitlist for a UC you’re not interested in, opt-out (or don’t opt-in). If every student did these two things, the waitlists would move sooner and more quickly.
Understanding why things happen helps create a plan for how to approach the situation. The process is not likely to change anytime soon, but it’s good to know that solutions are being discussed. In the meantime, the way students approach the process and how they handle the outcomes are ways to create an immediate impact.